Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f8e16e91eaec98cb73c25be8cc11b3496002fb6f8b6cb4f980425843a04f80d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,063 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed No | 2c | 761.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 5c | 307.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 5c | 227.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 19c | 163.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.37 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 20c | 100.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 17c | 99.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 66c | 78.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 79c | 73.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 70.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 18c | 63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 62.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 67c | 57.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 19c | 53.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 28c | 48.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 59c | 39.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 38.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…c3e6backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 33.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 29.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 71c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 22.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…b52bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.