Lol · resolved market
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Japan (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b965b91732f6cedb22a9eb402133cb0ac4ba46bd54c5405c4652a6ba13b84c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nongshim Red Forceof Nongshim Red Force, Japan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Japan | 1c | 27,599$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.56 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Japan | 1c | 13,400$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Japan | 5c | 7,250$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.47 | 135 | 43%58 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Japan | 5c | 6,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed Japan | 0c | 5,683$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Japan | 0c | 4,145$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Japan | 6c | 2,536$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Japan | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 443 | 35.4%157 W · 286 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…1011backed Japan | 4c | 2,386$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…252ebacked Japan | 4c | 1,950$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Japan | 2c | 1,788$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Japan | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Japan | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Japan | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 24.6%58 W · 178 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Japan | 6c | 887.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…2a1fbacked Japan | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 46.5%105 W · 121 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…0fefbacked Japan | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Japan | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…cf93backed Japan | 6c | 434.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0e…2330backed Japan | 8c | 380$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Japan | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 596 | 47.7%284 W · 312 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead7…cfe8backed Japan | 7c | 370.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed Japan | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Japan | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,456 | 13.2%192 W · 1,264 L | -111.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Japan | 8c | 240.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…00fbbacked Japan | 8c | 217$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Japan | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed Japan | 6c | 179.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Japan | 8c | 162.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Japan | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,240 | 37.3%836 W · 1,404 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.