Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aefad3f30e0e8df9107933182bae0fbb92a4bb9a7a69181a170aa49c7941d3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 0c | 4,940$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed Yes | 50c | 1,208$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 61c | 888.23$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.43 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 46c | 867.03$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.56 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 578.41$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 57c | 472.16$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.28 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 46c | 383.51$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.64 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 6c | 338.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 325.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Yes | 25c | 308.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.69 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 40c | 262.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.25 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 34c | 261.86$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.18 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 261.55$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes | 47c | 252.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 45c | 249.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed No | 4c | 244.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed No | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a6…012bbacked Yes | 46c | 194$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 190.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 49c | 182.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…8223backed No | 54c | 180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 178.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…50e8backed Yes | 44c | 163$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 161$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 156.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 7c | 155$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…dedebacked No | 56c | 155$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 47c | 148.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 138.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…6f76backed Yes | 38c | 131.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 30c | 130.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9e8backed Yes | 32c | 123.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…e38bbacked Yes | 47c | 120.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 23c | 110.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…60b9backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfda0…cfabbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…ba06backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…9422backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…62c9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…f96abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cb…4493backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…36efbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…c49fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 50c | 99.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 90.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 20c | 89.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 42c | 83.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd089…88e6backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7523backed Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 43c | 73.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 26c | 72.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 27c | 69.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 27c | 68.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…3b35backed Yes | 49c | 67.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 44c | 66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40bf…9e13backed Yes | 42c | 64.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 61.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…8d89backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…1ce4backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc4…c122backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 58.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d5d7backed No | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…750abacked Yes | 49c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…e2debacked Yes | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…f8cebacked No | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…0a85backed Yes | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…8e85backed Yes | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…787cbacked No | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…e161backed Yes | 52c | 52.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843f…5696backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…4f6cbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…db72backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c7…552abacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…cd99backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 41c | 48.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfde…62ddbacked No | 75c | 46.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fb…a26ebacked No | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…c2eebacked Yes | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 50c | 43.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…9145backed Yes | 46c | 41.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked No | 70c | 40.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…2e90backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…0d83backed No | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Yes | 45c | 37.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…ccf1backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…c579backed No | 64c | 36.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed No | 77c | 34.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 68c | 31.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…4332backed Yes | 48c | 31.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…fa8ebacked No | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.