Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on November 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0661751d572a19cb33535ecce6f52109ca7a5dcf262c49509d60082ad58b48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 1c | 10,274$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…1badbacked Yes | 20c | 6,515$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 6c | 3,708$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.26 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,021$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…bcfdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,843$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 11c | 1,660$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…b40bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,434$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,208$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…f12ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,086$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,034$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8c…6a98backed Yes | 14c | 1,008$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 10c | 999.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…52debacked Yes | 12c | 999.94$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 10c | 989.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 2c | 955.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 2c | 912.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 2c | 804.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed Yes | 5c | 800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…4082backed Yes | 8c | 691.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 5c | 641.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 10c | 549.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Yes | 14c | 493.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 6c | 423.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b4a8backed Yes | 26c | 379.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 26c | 379.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 9c | 370$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…4cd2backed Yes | 10c | 288.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…088dbacked No | 80c | 256.16$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 7c | 249.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…c49fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…81bdbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…8917backed Yes | 29c | 173.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 8c | 156.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…ba00backed Yes | 27c | 147.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 10c | 121.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…7b97backed No | 79c | 111.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 65cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 77c | 109.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfde…62ddbacked No | 79c | 97.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 28c | 96.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…fa42backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f31…83cfbacked Yes | 23c | 72.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Yes | 19c | 72.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2089…44fabacked Yes | 21c | 52.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 62c | 33.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on November 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.