TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf058…955b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Tweets, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST3215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-58.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$69.81
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$30.56
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+304.9%+$145.32
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$49.3
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$27.96
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$32.87
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$94.03
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$48.01
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+42.9%+$9
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$43.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$35.82
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or below on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$13.16
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$90.29
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$28.53
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$12.86
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+98.8%+$49.7
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$24.44
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$24.36
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$55.91
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$47.69
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.2
Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.25
Military action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.61
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.35
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.54
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.11
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.77
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.9
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.06
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.56
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.12
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.67
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.1
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.16
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.83
US strikes Yemen by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$95
Will Israel not strike Yemen by September 30 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$85
All 25 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Red Wings vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Flames vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$37.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Heat vs. Spursbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.05
Trail Blazers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+85.9%+$94.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Interstellar object confirmed aliens?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.