Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf426cf893fa6c53a242ee3324a11cf4b454e525ac17b8a801dfbfbf06b55fd6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 12,144$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 29c | 1,311$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.63 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…364cbacked Yes | 36c | 636.03$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 13c | 540.66$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 13c | 540.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 18c | 397.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 35c | 381.45$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 376.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes | 4c | 371.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 14c | 337.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 75c | 316.35$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 33c | 306.02$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 23c | 300.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 17c | 292.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 6c | 280.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 71c | 269.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 21c | 224.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 200.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…9949backed Yes | 60c | 184$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 31c | 149.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…f078backed Yes | 62c | 139$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 17c | 132.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 128$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 67c | 124$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 16c | 123$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 41c | 118.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 30c | 117.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 58c | 116.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 39c | 107.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 56c | 90.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 45c | 89.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 26c | 89.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 71c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 71.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 27c | 67.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8484…4de9backed Yes | 39c | 64.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed Yes | 44c | 56.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 78c | 54.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f9…fdb9backed Yes | 50c | 21.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…f899backed Yes | 52c | 19.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or higher on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.