TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,685 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes28c4,762$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.784,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes10c2,112$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1524710.9%27 W · 220 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9791…19bdbacked No76c2,034$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No56c977.5$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.762,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No64c933.49$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.343948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5778…4581backed Yes53c788.26$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.643046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f2…1131backed Yes15c718.93$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2710135.6%36 W · 65 L+15.2wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+83%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c649.18$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.712,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf385…364cbacked Yes37c629.24$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.81315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No52c617.2$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.5263323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes21c600$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd2a…9baabacked No52c594.94$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.72837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8864…3ed5backed Yes58c593.42$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3453259.4%19 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed Yes25c575.2$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.765853.4%31 W · 27 L+9.8wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+188.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes31c528.98$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3566735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea02…23d1backed Yes8c525.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.23318.2%6 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes12c461$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9696620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed Yes70c450$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3174445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d7…716abacked Yes74c440.32$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.111090%9 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick70cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes12c406.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b7…d820backed Yes30c375.53$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2125436.6%93 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes59c356.15$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21047417.9%85 W · 389 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d0…af08backed Yes53c328.84$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.664337.2%16 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes20c310$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.34316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes20c309.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6660235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes48c306.27$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.012240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes35c302.03$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.76731.3%21 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Yes33c284.48$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.033215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-58.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadca…2153backed No78c257.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f70…d13abacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109433.4%32 W · 911 L-1.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8968…9949backed Yes31c248.98$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.67837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes39c239.06$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.281,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c04…7031backed Yes22c224.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.232317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-64.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes7c207.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5624710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No76c203.08$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.355756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6272125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3299…2d7bbacked Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf67c…2f87backed Yes57c176.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+218%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No76c158.83$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes38c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3584930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c0…d212backed No42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875125.5%13 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes14c145.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4947834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No47c143.43$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.51,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ac…a437backed Yes40c135.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.62420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes46c133.04$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.672330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes53c120$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1578…4b73backed No55c116.25$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.384337.2%16 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes29c104.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f3…48e4backed Yes47c102.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.396264.5%40 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6946…bdeebacked Yes31c98.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.443234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-35.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes26c94.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes54c92.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes56c92.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525545.5%25 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes47c92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.243748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes19c89.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c8b…1614backed Yes57c88.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes24c87.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4120728%58 W · 149 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes24c87.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.411,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9e8backed Yes59c85.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a6…8924backed Yes59c85.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…1720backed Yes31c80.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes47c79.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1317334.7%60 W · 113 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0542…b0cfbacked Yes50c77.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed No55c74.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.28977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes52c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f8…81bdbacked Yes42c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No48c69.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6784759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes36c65.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.462642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c7…352ebacked Yes52c64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4417532%56 W · 119 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb041…23a7backed No75c62.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.713476.5%26 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00de…9c2ebacked Yes66c60.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc107…0137backed Yes39c59.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.578016.3%13 W · 67 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed No46c58.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6215749.7%78 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes39c54.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.412334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…4bf3backed Yes39c54.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.412231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes39c54.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.413336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes38c51.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4946423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7550…60f9backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca9b…217fbacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1240…6419backed Yes50c49.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes51c48.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No52c46.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1521847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f8…f8d5backed No39c45.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7254529.5%161 W · 384 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7729…4337backed Yes67c44.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb3e…b7aabacked No66c43.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes58c43.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c42.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.042,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x869b…7ab2backed Yes29c41.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122065%13 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb719…dacbbacked Yes36c40.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.561618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1526834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.534835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc714…e39ebacked Yes38c38.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.811275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd349…5901backed Yes38c36.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes60c36.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1401…0707backed No44c35.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.611283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+42.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.711332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3342…fba2backed Yes38c34.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.272161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ba…2b4abacked Yes58c34.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.