Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f925dfec7c919b49dcba4ca808b1a5e92cb1cd68a33e5c5301b07c28cb8f185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 4,762$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 10c | 2,112$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.15 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…19bdbacked No | 76c | 2,034$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 977.5$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 64c | 933.49$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.34 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 53c | 788.26$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.64 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…1131backed Yes | 15c | 718.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +15.2wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 649.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…364cbacked Yes | 37c | 629.24$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 52c | 617.2$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.52 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 21c | 600$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…9baabacked No | 52c | 594.94$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 58c | 593.42$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 25c | 575.2$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 528.98$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.35 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 8c | 525.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 12c | 461$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 70c | 450$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…716abacked Yes | 74c | 440.32$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.11 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 12c | 406.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 30c | 375.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 59c | 356.15$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 53c | 328.84$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.66 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 20c | 310$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 20c | 309.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 48c | 306.27$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 35c | 302.03$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 33c | 284.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadca…2153backed No | 78c | 257.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…9949backed Yes | 31c | 248.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 39c | 239.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c04…7031backed Yes | 22c | 224.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 7c | 207.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 76c | 203.08$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2f87backed Yes | 57c | 176.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +218%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 158.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 38c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed No | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 14c | 145.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 143.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 40c | 135.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 46c | 133.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed No | 55c | 116.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 29c | 104.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 47c | 102.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 31c | 98.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 94.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 54c | 92.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 56c | 92.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 47c | 92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 19c | 89.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 57c | 88.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 24c | 87.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 24c | 87.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9e8backed Yes | 59c | 85.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 59c | 85.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…1720backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 47c | 79.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…b0cfbacked Yes | 50c | 77.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 55c | 74.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…81bdbacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 48c | 69.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 36c | 65.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 52c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 75c | 62.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…9c2ebacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 39c | 59.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 46c | 58.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 39c | 54.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 39c | 54.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 39c | 54.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 38c | 51.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1240…6419backed Yes | 50c | 49.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes | 51c | 48.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 39c | 45.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7729…4337backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…b7aabacked No | 66c | 43.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes | 58c | 43.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 42.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed Yes | 29c | 41.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Yes | 36c | 40.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…e39ebacked Yes | 38c | 38.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…5901backed Yes | 38c | 36.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Yes | 60c | 36.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 44c | 35.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed Yes | 38c | 34.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…2b4abacked Yes | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or higher on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.