TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa06c…0861

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
423
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Tweets, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT24710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 247 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.32
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.62
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.43
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.38
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.57
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.81
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.72
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.69
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.58
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.38
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.58
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.53
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.09
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.6
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.48
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.11
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.53
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.68
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.54
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.7
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+307.4%+$106.3
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.61
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.51
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.25
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.92
Showing 25 of 247 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1468.2%12 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 146 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.28
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.38
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.56
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.55
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$487.03
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.78
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+301.6%+$476.42
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.86
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.53
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$483.84
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.1
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.62
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$412.65
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.63
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.28
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.12
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.89
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.47
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.43
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.34
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.06
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.77
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.99
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.58
Showing 25 of 146 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick2cpaid+846.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.29
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.6
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.09
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.12
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.04
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.59
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.47
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.51
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.35
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+11,260.8%+$5,228.48
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.94
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$81.01
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$103.22
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$34.97
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$17.65
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$37.03
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$851Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$850.73
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$100.81
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$170.57
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$21.89
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$72.95
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$16.64
Will the US strike Mexico next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$43.38
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$19.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.