TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,525 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes3c3,855$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.992,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c2,179$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.584,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8429…642fbacked Yes5c1,447$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.181926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes10c1,314$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.543238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes12c754.73$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes8c530.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9925519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes7c500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.930813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c490.13$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.984,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No77c392.59$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.32,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes29c366.8$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9335742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes16c296.11$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0711438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No77c270.68$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.271,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes16c225.28$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.229439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes19c215.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c207.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes12c186.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.246053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes29c180$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5511343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No66c179.78$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5325466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed Yes7c176$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3224770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes34c158$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.51,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes35c149.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes11c140.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9937942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c140.13$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.131,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed Yes29c134.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4910427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes10c124.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2134624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes22c120$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.624710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes13c117.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7429520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes29c113.34$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.362,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No68c113.31$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.65940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc6…b97abacked Yes34c99.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.817536.6%64 W · 111 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes31c99.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1946743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No70c94.48$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4562770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes36c94.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6510834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No77c90.65$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7738258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No74c85.34$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9543859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes33c85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.255633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes29c82.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.944,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes38c81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1825038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…b14fbacked Yes35c74.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes34c73.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.372729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c71.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.552,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd912…32a2backed Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No72c62.74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.391,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes31c60.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0314736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No64c59.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1820353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes29c55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1629740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No69c53.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4919764.5%127 W · 70 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes30c50.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1117536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes22c50.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.931,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8234934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x723e…083ebacked No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184334.9%15 W · 28 L-6.3wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No64c49.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes30c49.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.997728.6%22 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c48.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.032,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No71c46.29$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5841258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No69c44.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70a…0883backed No70c43.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.957866.7%52 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c42.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.322,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4087…9678backed No65c41.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.669553.7%51 W · 44 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1717…1f7cbacked No67c41.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.576536.9%24 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.353,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6924…b011backed Yes30c38.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.712128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No53c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8620838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4077…88e0backed Yes35c36.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c34.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes36c33.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9520037%74 W · 126 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes32c33.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.732138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes45c33.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8843842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No71c33.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.741,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No68c31.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1316968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc33a…fae1backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd356…d72fbacked No70c29.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No71c29.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No68c25.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No69c25.11$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8412057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No78c25.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4539157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No76c24.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No63c23.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.925158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78e7…5fddbacked No72c23.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.581520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-70.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7433373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No63c21.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9951762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x503f…9a8fbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb482…2ac7backed No71c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.771478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No58c19.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ada…05b8backed No70c17.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb449…1a89backed No68c17.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.661553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No65c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9527648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c15.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x02cd…cedcbacked No80c12.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.522369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick78cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.