Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1d043fbc9cac8f011b658e06e1b78f846e3f421a4b60cf8e31b3a93298daaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 3c | 3,855$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,179$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…642fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,447$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 10c | 1,314$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 12c | 754.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 8c | 530.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 490.13$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 392.59$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 29c | 366.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.93 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 16c | 296.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 270.68$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 16c | 225.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 19c | 215.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 207.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 12c | 186.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 29c | 180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 66c | 179.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed Yes | 7c | 176$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 158$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 149.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 11c | 140.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 140.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 29c | 134.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 10c | 124.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 22c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 13c | 117.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 113.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 113.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 31c | 99.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 94.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 36c | 94.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 77c | 90.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 74c | 85.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 82.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 38c | 81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…b14fbacked Yes | 35c | 74.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 34c | 73.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 71.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 62.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 31c | 60.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 64c | 59.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 69c | 53.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 30c | 50.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 50.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 48.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 71c | 46.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 44.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 70c | 43.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 42.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 65c | 41.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 67c | 41.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…b011backed Yes | 30c | 38.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…88e0backed Yes | 35c | 36.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 34.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 32c | 33.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 45c | 33.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 33.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 68c | 31.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…fae1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…d72fbacked No | 70c | 29.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 29.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 25.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 69c | 25.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 78c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 63c | 23.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e7…5fddbacked No | 72c | 23.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 63c | 21.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…9a8fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…2ac7backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 19.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ada…05b8backed No | 70c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…1a89backed No | 68c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.