TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcb26…0e22

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
463
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: AI, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category AI at 58 out of 100; worst Tweets at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT39157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 391 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.01
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.25
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$11.63
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$10.05
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+52%+$7.19
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$15.21
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$4.72
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+109.1%+$14.09
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$9.9
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.42
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.44
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.3
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.26
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.99
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$8.15
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$10.55
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+84.4%+$9.17
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.69
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+94.8%+$12.17
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+27.9%+$7.98
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$3.56
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+31%+$3.55
Showing 25 of 391 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$57.7
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$29.76
Will AD+PD win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$22.23
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.03
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+417%+$60.83
Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.13
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.02
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+68%+$12.64
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$5.14
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.52
Will the Green Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$5.65
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+38.5%+$6.39
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$34
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$25.25
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$113.68
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.26
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+94.8%+$128.24
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.83
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.08
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.6
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.82
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+136.1%+$41.68
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.64
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+69.4%+$13.26
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+99.7%+$31.84
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+118.9%+$45.19
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$9.89
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.69
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+64.1%+$7.42
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.74
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.69
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.93
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.54
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.02
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.37
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.69
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$6.65
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.3
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$45.39
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.95
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+86.3%+$151.98
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.52
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+41%+$33.39
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.65
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+61.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+133.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.