World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcafee14b4c38bce2151e56d71cf4ce01a7b48159e80bc213c08294cb98bb9b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,878$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 51c | 2,896$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.41 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 74c | 1,316$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.74 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 846.31$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.56 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes | 72c | 824.8$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 10c | 824.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 9c | 700.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 32c | 573.27$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.69 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 557.1$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.36 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 25c | 537.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 71c | 527.54$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 520.54$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.93 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…1b02backed Yes | 78c | 487.11$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 28c | 467.19$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 53c | 454.85$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.61 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 73c | 442.61$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 46c | 407.43$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 43c | 401.52$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.41 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes | 51c | 347.84$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 314.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 53c | 312.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 223.04$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 34c | 219.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 211.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 206.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 204.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Yes | 73c | 202.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 169.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 32c | 167.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.09 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 28c | 164.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 19c | 150.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…b99fbacked Yes | 31c | 144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 29c | 141.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 16c | 139.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 25c | 135.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 12c | 135.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 26c | 135.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 130.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 76c | 129.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 21c | 128.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 127.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 126.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 80c | 125.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 16c | 124.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 43c | 123$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 58c | 121.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes | 51c | 119.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked No | 73c | 114.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 23c | 112.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 66c | 110.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 107.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 103.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 66c | 100.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 69c | 95.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…7628backed Yes | 49c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 62c | 87.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…6087backed Yes | 62c | 86.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 64c | 86.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 85.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…0caebacked Yes | 18c | 83.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 44c | 83.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed No | 24c | 82.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +311%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed Yes | 49c | 81.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 20c | 76.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 76.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 51c | 76.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 33c | 75.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…2554backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 68.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 69c | 65.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 23c | 64.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 63.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 60c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 52c | 58.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 23c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 69c | 49.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 41c | 49.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…0ae2backed Yes | 41c | 49.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 50c | 48.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 48.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 64c | 48.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 61c | 41.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 65c | 37.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…106cbacked No | 36c | 34.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 33.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 50c | 32.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.