World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec2a62e1fa7a0a782f4383ef614fc12b16d5a6c123bc26a49da12597bbb5576c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked No | 18c | 1,828$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 58c | 1,014$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.97 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 675.29$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.9 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 32c | 654.2$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.95 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 651$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.88 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 41c | 579.2$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.71 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 522.12$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.1 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…b04cbacked Yes | 52c | 476.01$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 14c | 441.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 17c | 431.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 329.69$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 329.32$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.48 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 52c | 294.56$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 278.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 36c | 277.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 254.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 68c | 253.74$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed No | 43c | 231.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 224.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 200.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 32c | 188.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 21c | 176.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 44c | 164.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 25c | 158.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 39c | 156.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 149.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 13c | 137.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 75c | 133.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 130.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 48c | 130$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 61c | 123$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 117.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 116.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 100.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 52c | 99.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 98.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 34c | 97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 49c | 93.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…4240backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 45c | 88.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 87.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes | 39c | 83.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes | 60c | 83.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 36c | 75.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 70c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 59c | 72.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 32c | 69.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 47c | 69.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 69.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…0caebacked Yes | 59c | 68.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 67c | 67.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 25c | 67.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 38c | 66.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 57c | 63.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 59.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 58.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 63c | 56.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…2f35backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 46c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 41c | 53.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 58c | 52.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 51.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 77c | 50.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…dc56backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Yes | 55c | 48.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 48.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 54c | 47.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 60c | 46.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…3c7dbacked Yes | 52c | 46.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 45.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 44c | 43.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 52c | 43.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 60c | 43.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 41.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 36c | 41.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 28c | 40.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 56c | 38.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 38.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…0d65backed Yes | 46c | 38.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 67c | 37.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 66c | 37.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 57c | 37.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.