World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeab98f9df0d7085f0191dcee9e2be9db5fc1f569fe6de76a3686b9c4a0846c74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 2,876$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 4c | 2,484$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,224$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 5c | 945.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 5c | 889.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 527.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…b04cbacked Yes | 38c | 524.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 11c | 516.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 6c | 501.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 4c | 491.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 438.06$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 5c | 397.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 383.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 8c | 293.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 5c | 267.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 14c | 235.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 9c | 230.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 7c | 221.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 208.03$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 6c | 204.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 204.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 200.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 188.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 24c | 168.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 163.1$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 155.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 153.31$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 148$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 129.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 20c | 124.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 18c | 123$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 13c | 119.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 109.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 102.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 15c | 99.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 35c | 94.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 93.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 85.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 13c | 84.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 60c | 82.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 77c | 78.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 77.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 76.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 75.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 68.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 61c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 66.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 79c | 63.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 79c | 63.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 71c | 62.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 20c | 60.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 59.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 80c | 54.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 53.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 53.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 52.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 52.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 74c | 50.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 23c | 50.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 22c | 49.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 36c | 49.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 46.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 46.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 46.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 66c | 45.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 42.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 24c | 42.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 29c | 41.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 64c | 39.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 64c | 39.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 38.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 36.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 36.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 35.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 32.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 38c | 31.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 74c | 30.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…bec7backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 79c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d98cbacked No | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 24.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 16.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 15.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.