TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x84c3…35d4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,024
Categories scored
29
Categories below 50
18

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 57 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT21268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 212 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.76
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.89
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$16.49
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$8.43
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+59.7%+$15.33
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$14.64
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$3.91
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+86.7%+$18.57
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.9
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.89
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.49
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+46.2%+$19.51
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.06
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$24.51
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.09
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+65.5%+$9.19
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.52
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+80.4%+$15.6
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$27.75
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.44
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+61%+$22.08
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$10.8
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$10.88
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$16.24
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$38.36
Showing 25 of 212 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT14945%67 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 149 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.54
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.28
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+33%+$6.21
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+33%+$34.26
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.11
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.48
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$16.31
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.19
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.7
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$53.96
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.72
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$315.61
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.58
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.09
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$35.35
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.14
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$38.97
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.39
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$25.24
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.81
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.87
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.24
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+423.3%+$109.2
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.43
Showing 25 of 149 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT8245.1%37 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 82 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)backed Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.54
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$129.35
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.31
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$161.24
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)backed Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.46
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)backed San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+122.1%+$54.54
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.58
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)backed Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.9
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.43
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$10.92
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.16
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)backed Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.57
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.62
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.74
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)backed Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$13.6
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)backed San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$160.65
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)backed St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+71.3%+$90.34
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.8
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)backed Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+162.1%+$30.78
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$58.73
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)backed Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$147.87
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)backed Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.16
Showing 25 of 82 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT7934.2%27 W · 52 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 79 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Hubert Hurkaczbacked Sho Shimabukuro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.43
Todi: Maxim Mrva vs Federico Agustin Gomezbacked Maxim Mrva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$156.6
Hamburg: Marvin Moeller vs Niels McDonaldbacked Niels McDonald · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Rebecca Sramkovabacked Hanne Vandewinkel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$64.86
National Bank Open: Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osakabacked Elise Mertens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.5
National Bank Open: Maya Joint vs Liudmila Samsonovabacked Maya Joint · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.38
ITF Astana: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yerassyl Yerdildabacked Yerassyl Yerdilda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.72
Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Mathys Erhard vs Olaf Pieczkowskibacked Mathys Erhard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$9.68
Vancouver: Benjamin Bonzi vs Michael Mmohbacked Michael Mmoh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.4
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Branko Djuric vs Nikita Bilozertsevbacked Nikita Bilozertsev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.88
ITF Huamantla: Oswaldo Alejandro Reyes Tirado vs Mwendwa Mbithibacked Mwendwa Mbithi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.6
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aleksa Oparnica vs Tim Vaismanbacked Aleksa Oparnica · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$67.75
Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentovabacked Maya Joint · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.95
ITF Brisbane: Ava Beck vs Destanee Aiavabacked Ava Beck · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.3
Cordenons: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretubacked Cezar Cretu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.05
Croatia Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Federico Agustin Gomezbacked Raul Brancaccio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.43
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovicbacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.6
Braunschweig: Norbert Gombos vs Sebastian Ofnerbacked Norbert Gombos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.3
Contrexeville: Caroline Werner vs Dominika Salkovabacked Dominika Salkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.56
ITF Stuttgart-Vaihingen: Tessa Johanna Brockmann vs Alice Tubellobacked Tessa Johanna Brockmann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.21
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Antonia Ruzicbacked Antonia Ruzic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.85
ITF Amstelveen: Alena Kovackova vs Carolina Alvesbacked Carolina Alves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.06
Quito: Juan Sebastian Gomez vs Ignacio Monzonbacked Ignacio Monzon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$142.5
Milan: Elmer Moeller vs Norbert Gombosbacked Elmer Moeller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$9.99
Quito: Angel Veliz vs Daniel Nunezbacked Angel Veliz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.39
Showing 25 of 79 picks, newest first.
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT7634.2%26 W · 50 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+55.2%+$7.11
France vs. Morocco: France O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.93
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$278.6
Colombia leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
Switzerland leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.84
Spain leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.67
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 DR Congo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$9.72
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.24
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.36
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.32
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$7.83
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$199.95
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)backed Uzbekistan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$57.32
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$218.94
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.23
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+37%+$10.53
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.9
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$562Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$146.74
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.42
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$85.28
Brazil leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.44
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT6933.3%23 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.76
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$10.15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+105.2%+$72.86
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$13.1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$16.58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+308.9%+$39.78
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.62
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+474.3%+$108.79
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.11
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+189.9%+$24.24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.78
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.96
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.84
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.19
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+71%+$75.17
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.67
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.75
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.98
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+111.7%+$58.56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.71
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.4
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT6346%29 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+203%+$44.22
Will Meta (META) close at $640-$650 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 13 – Jul 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.75
Will Meta (META) finish week of July 13 above $640?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.47
Will Meta (META) finish week of July 13 above $630?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $245-$250 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.48
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $240-$245 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.23
Will Meta (META) finish week of July 6 above $590?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$14.52
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$48.3
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$33.6
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 29 above $360?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.17
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $385-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.09
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 29 above $195?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.04
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 29 above $200?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$7.56
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$12.15
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.84
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $395?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.09
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 22 above $340?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.25
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $400?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$9.36
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $240-$245 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.2
Will Meta (META) close at $560-$570 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.65
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $230-$235 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.28
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $4.50?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$9.68
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $360-$365 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 8 – Jun 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.76
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.56
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$26.88
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT5853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+64.7%+$33.78
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.24
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$12.62
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.72
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+91.9%+$26.87
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$13.79
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+53.4%+$13.92
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$8.53
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.81
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.74
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$2.72
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+31%+$8.05
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.04
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$16.62
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$78.63
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.34
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.88
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+80.1%+$9.32
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.01
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$10.87
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+55.7%+$50.45
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$26.45
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+194.7%+$199.92
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT3348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.18
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+120.1%+$21.83
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.17
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$5.96
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.24
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.65
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.48
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.25
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.99
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.23
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.74
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$21
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.39
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.68
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.65
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.82
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+72.3%+$7.97
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+267.1%+$129.3
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$13.6
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+54%+$86.39
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$16.56
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$34.87
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+208%+$77.66
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT2860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+121.6%+$28.15
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.74
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+267%+$38.56
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$3.87
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.51
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$18.86
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.08
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.02
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$3.17
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.08
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$3.18
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$3.68
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+130.2%+$13.57
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$5.92
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.43
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$3.92
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$26.44
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.03
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.85
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+92.6%+$31.73
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.42
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.5
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.09
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.12
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.2
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$13.17
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+83.1%+$12.92
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.04
Will Teresa Ruiz be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.52
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.34
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$4.83
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.01
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.97
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+130.4%+$57.16
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+55.3%+$29.15
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+531.9%+$56.4
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.26
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$9.8
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$18.02
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$10.99
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.87
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.53
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$10.27
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.23
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+283.9%+$105.81
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+162.5%+$31.38
All 25 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT2147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Denmark win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+53%+$13.03
Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$17.05
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+78.1%+$24.56
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.46
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.22
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$5.28
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.63
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.04
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+129%+$33.8
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.74
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.6
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+282.5%+$96.97
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.59
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+74.6%+$26.91
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$7.27
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$29.77
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.62
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$39.1
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.52
Will Hannah Harper win American Idol Season 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.86
All 21 picks, newest first.
South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-46.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.13
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-08-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.58
CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$33.81
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-08-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.65
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-08-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.9
Fluminense FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.73
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-07-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.35
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.32
Will Club León FC vs. Atlas FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.47
Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)backed CA Boca Juniors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.14
Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)backed Fluminense FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.31
CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$42.84
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.92
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$614Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$613.62
CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.2
Santos FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+35%+$4.92
Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.57
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$24.5
Will CA Boston River vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$36.55
All 19 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.72
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.63
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.76
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$18.27
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+123.4%+$48.21
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$9.84
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.65
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.66
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+127%+$102.64
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.1
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.93
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+29%+$63.94
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.28
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.59
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+109.5%+$27.57
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.42
Will SUJA LIFE's market cap be between $0.8B and $1B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
All 17 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Color vs SPARTA (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagebacked Color · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.24
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Just Players (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked Nuclear TigeRES · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$17.1
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.67
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Abacked Sashi Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$16.38
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group Bbacked FOKUS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$124.8
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winnerbacked Eternal Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.89
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stagebacked Leo Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.07
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stagebacked Lavked · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$8.97
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs paiN Academy - Map 2 Winnerbacked Keyd · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffsbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.25
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$27
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.32
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$24.79
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.62
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+80.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+282.8%+$75.68
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.16
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.45
Will Mykhailo Drapatyi be appointed as the next Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.23
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+236.3%+$76.06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+199.4%+$172.25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+653.2%+$919.83
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$33.92
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.58
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+45.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$14.25
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+335%+$104.73
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$31.15
Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.79
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.3
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$10.94
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$26.52
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$4.55
All 8 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.41
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.34
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.71
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$13.18
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.04
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.07
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.06
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$93.03
All 8 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-66.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Earnings — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+236.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+212.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+140.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.