Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf175df87f4cbcbcd65d85866b9e837e0ef1f2d0f1c14b6e01791ec28c3413fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 64c | 6,245$3,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.31 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,900$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.98 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 24c | 2,130$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.48 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 36c | 1,804$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.26 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 71c | 1,313$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.64 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.85 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…b34dbacked Yes | 7c | 870$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af7…54c3backed Yes | 7c | 870$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…8e15backed Yes | 7c | 840$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…77a9backed Yes | 7c | 840$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed No | 64c | 813.08$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.88 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Yes | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 49c | 790.27$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.27 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…8cbcbacked Yes | 7c | 704$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…1acfbacked Yes | 7c | 704$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d77…262ebacked Yes | 7c | 688$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…4b92backed Yes | 7c | 688$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0419…3cf6backed Yes | 7c | 686$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…49a9backed Yes | 7c | 686$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…71e1backed Yes | 7c | 680$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…bd16backed Yes | 7c | 680$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 29c | 582.58$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.66 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…7a7bbacked Yes | 20c | 571.61$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…88c0backed Yes | 20c | 563.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 544.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…e413backed Yes | 19c | 535.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 36c | 488.2$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.41 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 24c | 423$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 17c | 400.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 13c | 390.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 62c | 344.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 75c | 333.43$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 18c | 319.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d440backed No | 65c | 308.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 29c | 304.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 80c | 303.17$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 14c | 281.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 271.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 79c | 268.86$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 30c | 235.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 34c | 225.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 17c | 225.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 30c | 216.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed Yes | 12c | 206.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 199.96$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 69c | 199.79$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 38c | 195.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 38c | 184.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 176.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 15c | 171.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 168.01$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 24c | 164.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 159.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 24c | 159.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 72c | 156.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd01…4f9ebacked Yes | 29c | 150.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked Yes | 11c | 141.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 135.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 22c | 128.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0639…75c6backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 40c | 117$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked No | 23c | 110$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…3e4ebacked Yes | 25c | 109.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 36c | 106.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 70c | 97.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 16c | 96.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed No | 76c | 93.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…9275backed No | 74c | 92.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 34c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 26c | 83.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed Yes | 73c | 76.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 73.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 36c | 72.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4b…dcd8backed Yes | 45c | 66.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 46c | 65.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 25c | 60.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…bf06backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 20c | 56.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 51.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…c757backed Yes | 32c | 46.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a21…695abacked Yes | 73c | 44.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf23…733ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf98…ffc6backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…e05ebacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 74c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…f7d5backed No | 65c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.