Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87f0159837abf86b5bd733eefd1810d7505d9d2ac4a83c6b0de873163dbb3e2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 12c | 4,423$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 22c | 3,174$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.97 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 76c | 2,944$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.08 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 16c | 1,534$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.99 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 19c | 1,273$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.63 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,237$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.22 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 20c | 896.68$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.72 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 20c | 750$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…da24backed No | 80c | 650.57$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 80c | 567.91$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 54c | 531.16$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.81 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed Yes | 33c | 500$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.92 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 9c | 383.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 36c | 349.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 75c | 330.68$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 15c | 309.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 309.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…d186backed No | 65c | 305.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…cf60backed Yes | 15c | 294.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 272.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 260.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 69c | 257.81$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 16c | 250.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 20c | 250$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 30c | 240.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 27c | 236.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…faa6backed Yes | 25c | 228.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 219.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 46c | 218.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 21c | 217.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 22c | 217.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 211.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed Yes | 20c | 210$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 20c | 210$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 23c | 197.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 17c | 184.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 184$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 168.49$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 23c | 142.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 14c | 141.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…68b5backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 12c | 139.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 127$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…f1b8backed Yes | 57c | 115.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 47c | 109.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 27c | 90.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 23c | 87.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 47c | 87.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 43c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed Yes | 19c | 80.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d680backed No | 54c | 79.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed No | 66c | 76.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 16c | 72.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 24c | 66.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 64.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8c…501ebacked No | 63c | 64.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 32c | 62.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 31c | 62.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked Yes | 51c | 59.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…4786backed Yes | 26c | 58.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…e2b1backed Yes | 23c | 56.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 21c | 52.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 32c | 50.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…125bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 50c | 46.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 32c | 45.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…2f9dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed Yes | 42c | 37.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 32c | 34.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 32c | 34.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 30.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x607b…b839backed No | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 18.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.