Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02bfcaadfe9ad3b78e62c87a5f826e7ac04182230f10fd88a81ec4c0c91305db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,039$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…ea70backed No | 6c | 1,741$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 52c | 1,037$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.81 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 59c | 1,026$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.64 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 924.56$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 65c | 920.58$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.42 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 45c | 736.62$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yes | 40c | 665.59$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.62 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 539.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 45c | 354.82$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 49c | 351.87$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 341.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.67 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ba…4cedbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 31c | 160.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 56c | 140.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 54c | 131.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c4…fa64backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 44c | 114.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…c14dbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…9275backed No | 59c | 97.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 60c | 83.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 58c | 78.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 50.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 51c | 40.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…d71dbacked No | 43c | 32.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 39c | 29.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 45c | 27.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…30b1backed Yes | 43c | 23.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +237.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 73c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.