TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdc31…3fe8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
208
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 59 out of 100; worst Tweets at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT5569.1%38 W · 17 L+6.5wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sergio Ramos attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Erling Haaland score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$25.6
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Switzerland vs Algeria FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$18.98
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assistsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$29.11
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Pedri: 1+ assistsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$14.95
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Mexico vs Ecuador FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$50.4
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Mexico vs Ecuador FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.44
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.5
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+50%+$20.64
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$15.89
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$7.75
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+111.5%+$14.76
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$4.62
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.2
Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$46.21
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT3951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 90 mph?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+113.9%+$40.97
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.12
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.99
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.39
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.38
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+51.9%+$16.04
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.15
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.74
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+137.1%+$28.02
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+65.9%+$14.61
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.22
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.73
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$29.23
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.4
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.14
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.36
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.05T by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.65
Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $23B?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 capital expenditures be above $43B?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Search & other revenue be above $65B?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+158.4%+$75.07
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.02
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.17
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+83.2%+$36.32
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$19.16
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4.79
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$19.4
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.75
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.35
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$14.31
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$46.54
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.23
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+111.6%+$15.07
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.2
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.71
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$5.95
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+110.8%+$34.17
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.2
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.94
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.83
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.17
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.15
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.4
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.4
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+97%+$26.29
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+117.1%+$15.11
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$10.02
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.66
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$10.96
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.81
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.84
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Matt Boehnke advance to the general election for WA-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
All 8 picks, newest first.
Earningslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commoditieslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Golf — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kevin Gausman be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be >7 minutes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.