Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x483e7d71c6bc653ac4f73137d6dd78a374af6a98394bf8e60740f990962834d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 41c | 554.24$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.35 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 51c | 460.19$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.19 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 29c | 318.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.43 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…91e9backed Yes | 63c | 221.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 28c | 197.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 59c | 173.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 50c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 136.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked Yes | 77c | 129$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 122.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 41c | 109.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…a214backed Yes | 56c | 78.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 61c | 74.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 72c | 68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed Yes | 41c | 67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 66.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 60.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 73c | 58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 23c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 61c | 50.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 53c | 46.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 47c | 43.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 41.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked No | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…9638backed No | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…4ebdbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b05…2c26backed Yes | 38c | 36.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 35.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 46c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 50c | 24.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e9…94d8backed Yes | 72c | 24.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…4a59backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…597cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…dbfdbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 75c | 18.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.