Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a58fdbf25eb9258e02fdf71bc76792f1ecef87445d8231f3a66966c24af8738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 19c | 719.04$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 27c | 276.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 77c | 231.11$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 13c | 227.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 12c | 191.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Yes | 41c | 122.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 59c | 119.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 41c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 52.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…5a20backed No | 68c | 44.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a5…34d1backed No | 73c | 42.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…4904backed No | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…4faebacked No | 73c | 41.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 34.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…a214backed Yes | 44c | 27.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 43c | 26.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 23.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked No | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…8147backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…ece8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.