Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce1aa1a68f51558b074961832154ed8dacea5d1e3ef90e2ba595210d25c71c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 36c | 522.46$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.46 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 47c | 508.24$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.92 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 53c | 417.11$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.21 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 41c | 176.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Yes | 42c | 167.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 61c | 160$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 147.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 51c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 37c | 80.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 63c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 45c | 65.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 56c | 62.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 61.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 60.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 74c | 60.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…e44cbacked Yes | 52c | 59.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…ba81backed Yes | 52c | 57.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 56.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…5a20backed No | 65c | 45.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…01b4backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…ec3abacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…4ebdbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…0432backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…a2e3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.