TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3008…3c76

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Lol, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 54 out of 100; worst Tweets at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-56.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Tweets — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.05
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+99.1%+$28.74
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$8.11
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$27.6
Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.12
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+86.9%+$18.6
Will 4–5 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$10.96
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$8.68
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lollast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+92.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chesslast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2last resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $6.5B and $8B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$9.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will North America Win the WSOP Main Eventbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ben Shelton Win ATP Montrealbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend UFC 330?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Charli xcx - Music, Fashion, Film" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.