TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5f3e…5337

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,056
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 51 out of 100; worst Movies at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT81848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 818 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.1
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.94
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.8
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$20
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+149.6%+$22.49
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+150.6%+$30.05
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.08
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.38
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+260.8%+$43.37
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.78
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.11
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.95
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.92
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+195%+$33.71
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$29.97
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.81
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.45
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+436.5%+$81.36
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+828.5%+$89.23
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.2
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$71
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Showing 25 of 818 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT11045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 110 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.56
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.37
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.95
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$53
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$20.64
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.95
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+756.8%+$90.06
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.56
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+109.4%+$26.13
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.44
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+157.3%+$30.57
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+229.5%+$111.44
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$10.69
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+139.9%+$58.32
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$36.59
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+61.7%+$38.15
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.85
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.39
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+50.1%+$33.36
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+35%+$12.97
Showing 25 of 110 picks, newest first.
Earningslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT2722.2%6 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-64.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Earnings — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yeti say "Brand" 5+ times during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
Will Spotify say "Meta" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Spotify say "Monetization" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.72
Will Apple say "GPU / CPU" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Apple say "iCloud" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$31.8
Will Amazon say "Supply Chain" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will Microsoft say "Windows 11" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Microsoft say "AMD / Advanced Micro Devices" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Procter & Gamble say "Customer" 5+ times during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.6
Will Boeing say "Moon" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Boeing say "Iran" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will American Express say "Wealth" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will American Express say "Commercial" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Dow say "Win" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
Will Dow say "Iran" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.08
Will Tesla say "Cybertruck" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.8
Will Tesla say "Emission" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.24
Will General Motors say "SUV" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$22.57
Will General Motors say "GMC" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will General Motors say "Horsepower" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.7
Will General Motors say "Revenue" 10+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$34.23
Will Netflix say "World Cup" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10.04
Will Netflix say "Subscriber" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$40.2
Will Bank of America say "Synergy" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will Bank of America say "Recession" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT2060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.87
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$66
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.95
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.7
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+102.1%+$95.84
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$38.81
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$125.85
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+38%+$10.78
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.9
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.49
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$37.69
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$14
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.32
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+104.3%+$104.29
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$34.67
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will the announcers say "Bench" or "Benches" 7+ times during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the announcers say "Foul" 12+ times during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the announcers say "Goal" 75+ times during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$29
Will the announcers say "VAR" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the announcers say "Qatar" or "Russia" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
Will the announcers say "Hand of God" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.25
Will the announcers say "VAR" during the Norway vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.76
Will the announcers say "Pressure" 7+ times during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the announcers say "VAR" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.99
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$37
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 20 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.5
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.85
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.29
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.45
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.13
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.78
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.44
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$11.14
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.38
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.68
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.99
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$23.3
Will Elon post "ChatGPT" on X this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$19.94
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.61
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.87
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+44.4%+$30.76
Will Elon post "Never" on X this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$35.5
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.7
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+259.9%+$28.21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.55
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.66
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.4
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.18
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.06
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of July 20 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.45
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of July 20 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.66
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 21?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 20?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+60.4%+$14.04
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$25.3
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.85
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-55.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say "Diary" during Big Brother E20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.19
Will anyone say "Camera" during Big Brother E19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$33.2
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 128m and 136m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6
Will anyone say "Dragon" 20+ times during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will anyone say "Grace" 20+ times during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will anyone say "Council" during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will anyone say "Storm" during House of the Dragon E6 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will anyone say "Conquest" during House of the Dragon E6 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$24.73
Will anyone say "Summer" 5+ times during Rick and Morty E10 S9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will anyone say "Horse" during Rick and Morty E10 S9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.8
Will anyone say "Instagram" or "TikTok" during Big Brother E8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will anyone say "Jury" during Big Brother E8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will anyone say "Pillow" during Big Brother E2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$134
Will anyone say "Trust" during Big Brother E2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.2
All 14 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev Win ATP Montrealbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.26
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.