Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6ea97c5f7fab43bec80aaf43573ddf640b7a53cc826ce6bab7baab4705e06ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 35c | 1,263$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.17 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 23c | 399.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 74c | 388.17$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 214$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 214$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 22c | 210.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 199.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 178.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 168.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 77c | 168.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 168.31$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 158.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 74c | 135.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 130.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 64c | 129$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 29c | 122.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 64c | 109.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 51c | 106.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 96.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 40c | 93.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 75.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 69.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 67.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 60.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 57c | 57.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 47c | 51.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 67c | 47.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 27c | 46.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 43.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 37.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 37.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 36.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 30c | 34.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 32c | 33.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…944abacked Yes | 75c | 33.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 33.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 29.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 68c | 26.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 43c | 26.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…c794backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 53c | 20.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…e8e1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed No | 74c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.