Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c09a52e706281e9c78fa1ad0e09f3fbc9bc26564f28a57e3378851b7b40e468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 44c | 826.34$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.97 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed No | 45c | 493.35$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 50c | 434.09$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.26 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 62c | 168.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 137.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 37c | 135.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 102$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 34c | 98.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 47c | 96.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 55c | 94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 86.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 85.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 56c | 74.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 73.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 70.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 29c | 66.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 60.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 58.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 56.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 53.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 49.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 48.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 46.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 51c | 45.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 49c | 45.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…c215backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9e…4351backed Yes | 48c | 41.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 40.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 29c | 39.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0xedbe…84d1backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 49c | 33.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 40c | 31.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…85f3backed Yes | 50c | 31.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 70c | 31.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 38c | 28.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 46c | 27.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 49c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 49c | 23.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 21.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 50c | 20.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 65c | 19.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 18.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.