Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacf4b43d1b70367d801bc929ff7fa35554059a5ba6505f5838f8644742dd4ef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 62c | 2,107$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.01 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed Yes | 38c | 900$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 71c | 850.1$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.58 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…0a12backed Yes | 49c | 709.96$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 705$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 601.65$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 24c | 581.24$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.29 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 38c | 572$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 456$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 354.81$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 354.19$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 69c | 337.56$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.25 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 31c | 325.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.93 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 298.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.96 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked No | 75c | 267.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 38c | 263.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 258$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.21 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 25c | 237.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.87 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 28c | 229.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.61 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 74c | 216.22$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.74 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 175.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 43c | 170.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 30c | 165.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 38c | 163.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 138.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 136.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 38c | 131$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 128.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 126.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 122.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 41c | 121.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 120$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 116.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…b1febacked No | 71c | 112.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 37c | 105.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 34c | 104.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 104.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 101.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 34c | 101.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 27c | 93.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 92.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 90.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 39c | 89.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 87.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 83.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 83.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…2fd1backed No | 63c | 81.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 81.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 75c | 79.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 79.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 70.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 66.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 70c | 66.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 65.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 62.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 26c | 60.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 56.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 53.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 26c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 27c | 51.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 76c | 51.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 51.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 35c | 51.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 33c | 51.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 50.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 47.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…9d00backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6e…0f70backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 32c | 39.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 39.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 39.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 78c | 38.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 75c | 36.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 33c | 35.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 34.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 34.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 33c | 34.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…261cbacked No | 72c | 34.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 34.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 31c | 33.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.