Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x707ab7ecdd3fa442fc9e6d6603a3fa8be81c8fad3f47e2874fdfa07ad483031c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb92a…02a0backed Yes | 0c | 2,869$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,036$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 77c | 875.08$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.32 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 35c | 694.1$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.1 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 570.9$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.25 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 41c | 530.15$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.32 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 317.54$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 72c | 278.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 73c | 275.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 76c | 263.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 60c | 245$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 28c | 216.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.21 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 71c | 211.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 69c | 210.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 201.34$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 75c | 197.24$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.42 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 46c | 196$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 37c | 195.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.53 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 194$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 34c | 193.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 181.14$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 78c | 174.71$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.27 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 76c | 171.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 29c | 163.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 50c | 160.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 156.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 156.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 48c | 152.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 49c | 152.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 28c | 149.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 66c | 148.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 142.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 57c | 140.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 70c | 136.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 53c | 133.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 33c | 132.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 129.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 32c | 129$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 27c | 126.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 122.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 122.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 48c | 117$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 109.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 62c | 104.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 104.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 71c | 101$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 55c | 97.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 73c | 96.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 95.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 60c | 92.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 36c | 89.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 35c | 89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 58c | 84.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 34c | 80.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 80.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 53c | 71.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 35c | 68.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 32c | 65.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 64c | 64.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 75c | 60.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked Yes | 67c | 59.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 73c | 57.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 69c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 35c | 56.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 47c | 55.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 54.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 30c | 54.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 75c | 53.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 72c | 53.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 48c | 52.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 65c | 50.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 74c | 46.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 26c | 45.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed Yes | 72c | 45.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…b366backed Yes | 75c | 45.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 66c | 44.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 67c | 44.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 53c | 43.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 47c | 42.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f2…97ccbacked Yes | 70c | 42.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 42c | 42.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 59c | 42.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 33c | 41.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 64c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 27c | 39.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…ffb3backed Yes | 52c | 39.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 38.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.