TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf668…e47a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
211
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT18131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 181 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$25.03
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.42
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$68
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.8
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+130.4%+$27.53
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+225.1%+$82.4
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.13
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.29
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.4
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+149.1%+$59.85
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.73
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$79
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.2
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.83
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.5
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.7
Showing 25 of 181 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.59
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$73
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.61
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.34
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+47.9%+$94.23
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.71
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.62
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$24.72
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$106.6
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$37.5
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+88.7%+$37.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+63.9%+$31.39
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+25%+$12.67
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$32.99
Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$51.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+265.9%+$109
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$34.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$294.22
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.