Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1258d9c2bf8cd930b8b22ae43d369fb13a41550fecb87fb5d0556fd70069a691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 2c | 1,403$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 13c | 758.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 4c | 584.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 475.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 24c | 423.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 30c | 327.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 26c | 304.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 76c | 263$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 5c | 252.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 250.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 23c | 210.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 197.49$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 189.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 178.53$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 8c | 172.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 25c | 145.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 70c | 129$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 20c | 122.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 100.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 98.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 79.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 78.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 25c | 75.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 25c | 73.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 27c | 69.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 69.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 57.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed Yes | 39c | 51.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 23c | 51.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 51.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 43.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 80c | 30.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 77c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 68c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 80c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or higher on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.