Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14377f28d0154fc3361fdd200001b23433490015eab9b193e02c70617429fb5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 10c | 1,604$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.08 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 15c | 1,004$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.7 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 892.15$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.66 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 50c | 403.39$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.57 | 408 | 66.4%271 W · 137 L | +35.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 12c | 356.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.69 | 1,239 | 30.1%373 W · 866 L | -6.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 79c | 347.25$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.77 | 82 | 80.5%66 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 79c | 329.38$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 295.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 287.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.05 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 76c | 249.17$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 334 | 46.4%155 W · 179 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 240.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.34 | 215 | 33%71 W · 144 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 229.08$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.04 | 604 | 61.1%369 W · 235 L | +29.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 62c | 220.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 412 | 51.7%213 W · 199 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 10c | 194.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.32 | 283 | 45.9%130 W · 153 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 32c | 194.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 663 | 21.7%144 W · 519 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.04 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 164.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 22c | 162.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.44 | 480 | 39.8%191 W · 289 L | +31.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 157.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked Yes | 67c | 157.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 58c | 149.24$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 141.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 78c | 141.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 135.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 76c | 131.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 48.4%107 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 130.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 26c | 124.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +13.3wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed No | 20c | 122.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 122.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 47c | 120.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 105$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 98.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 1,617 | 52.1%843 W · 774 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 96.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 80c | 94.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 228 | 60.1%137 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 72c | 93.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 93.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked No | 16c | 91.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 221 | 26.2%58 W · 163 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 89.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked No | 47c | 88.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 322 | 45.7%147 W · 175 L | +16.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 84.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 82.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 23c | 81.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 561 | 51.9%291 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 15c | 74.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 72.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 553 | 42.9%237 W · 316 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 71.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 25c | 68.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2,193 | 57%1,249 W · 944 L | +68.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 69c | 66.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 345 | 64.6%223 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 65.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 61.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…c211backed Yes | 55c | 61.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 73c | 61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 70c | 59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 233 | 59.7%139 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 52.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,279 | 53.9%690 W · 589 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 63c | 48.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 48.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked No | 31c | 48.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 199 | 27.1%54 W · 145 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 386 | 70.2%271 W · 115 L | +64.1wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 43.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 32c | 42.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 42.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 40.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 28c | 39.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 406 | 43.6%177 W · 229 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 79c | 36.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 352 | 76.4%269 W · 83 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 34.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 33.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 555 | 58.7%326 W · 229 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 44c | 31.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 281 | 50.9%143 W · 138 L | +24.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 77c | 30.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 477 | 62.7%299 W · 178 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 55c | 29.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 68c | 27.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184b…67b2backed Yes | 55c | 27.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…7f42backed Yes | 78c | 20.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…9913backed Yes | 73c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed Yes | 76c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or higher on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.