Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8f93cfec2266a9ff70f1210ac4676904891d3d155f9f9b2792593ec51cdbeea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 16c | 1,567$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.1 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 718.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 18c | 653.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.88 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 23c | 437.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 72c | 408$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 358.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 20c | 252.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 228.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 79c | 211.89$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 25c | 186.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 179.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 11c | 178.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 14c | 173.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked Yes | 27c | 169.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 168$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 23c | 161.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 160.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 25c | 140.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 134.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 134.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 119.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 76c | 113.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 19c | 103.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 17c | 99.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 19c | 97.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 92.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 92.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 23c | 83.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 75.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 26c | 74.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 32c | 68.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 60.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 27c | 56.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 55.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 55.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 52.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 46.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…3ff9backed Yes | 30c | 46.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4db8…d737backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 27c | 39.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…056cbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…5b93backed No | 72c | 32.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 72c | 31.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a7…03e4backed No | 73c | 24.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 60c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 74c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 73c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 73c | 14.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or higher on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.