Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc59fa0802a512df32290c1ef238d3d59485d6dac43f41c68c7603d64d389006f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 1,043$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.67 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 226$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 205.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 177.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 143.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 138.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 50c | 100.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 50c | 96.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 44c | 96.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 80.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 39c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 50c | 71.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 70.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 67.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 64c | 67.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 59.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 35c | 56.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 50.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…b083backed Yes | 58c | 48.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 47.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 43.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 40.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd200…2583backed No | 60c | 38.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 38.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…6b6cbacked Yes | 56c | 37.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 36.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 35.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 31.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 36c | 28.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 44c | 27.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb00e…43b5backed No | 49c | 25.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 25.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 50c | 22.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 20.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 16.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.