TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$401,601

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,601 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd614…d4febacked Yes0c58,734$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.185930.5%18 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes1c20,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7424710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes4c16,378$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.887025.7%18 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes2c12,254$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.164820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5f…737abacked Yes0c9,636$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Yes1c8,542$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes4c7,054$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.5213014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x917c…1fabbacked Yes0c6,850$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes1c6,676$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9142719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67f1…53f1backed Yes0c6,326$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25a7…a4c8backed Yes1c6,164$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.23911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-63.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c6,031$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.515535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66b…114dbacked Yes2c5,924$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.941631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+66.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83e9…cfb0backed Yes0c5,875$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ce1…ec83backed Yes1c5,134$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a5…c3f1backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf811…de46backed Yes2c4,638$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.98922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba9…0521backed Yes2c4,095$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes0c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes5c3,912$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes2c3,815$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.63935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd655…b5d5backed Yes3c3,495$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes9c3,080$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.7626411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes1c2,985$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.961968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+76.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c2,979$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.482,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes2c2,946$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.62966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3564…fa48backed Yes1c2,891$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.131833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes5c2,798$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.538918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef90…5930backed Yes4c2,575$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa490…bf7ebacked Yes2c2,532$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505910.2%6 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes1c2,522$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.91520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed Yes4c2,076$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.973971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb98…0f80backed Yes4c2,057$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806241.9%26 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes2c2,023$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7221816.1%35 W · 183 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes3c2,005$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.165014%7 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes1c2,002$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5625617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.972245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa486…25d4backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes2c2,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.62729.7%7 W · 65 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d6…a674backed Yes2c1,962$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa279…c30dbacked Yes3c1,895$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c1,681$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.351,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes3c1,628$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1210510.5%11 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Yes1c1,597$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc48…04edbacked Yes10c1,576$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.261625%4 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e43…b356backed Yes2c1,510$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4717818.5%33 W · 145 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…e1febacked Yes1c1,488$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0970%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0581…6565backed Yes4c1,374$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa12d…356abacked Yes2c1,363$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes25c1,269$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4727920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c1,210$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.82727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,204$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.282,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes4c1,201$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9332110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes2c1,200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6443027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes2c1,146$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes4c1,138$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22de…d7ecbacked Yes1c1,135$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes2c1,065$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1515430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…6271backed Yes8c1,045$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.472832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes12c1,042$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13041718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbef1…d41cbacked Yes3c1,006$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x889f…a7efbacked Yes3c880.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes6c842.93$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5125127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c810.47$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.2537830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc9e…6693backed Yes3c809.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.26631.8%21 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…49c9backed Yes5c759.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes37c741.68$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2787326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes2c700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.814153.9%76 W · 65 L+13.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes28c678.41$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1343933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x291f…6c53backed Yes3c635.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes2c614.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119515.8%15 W · 80 L-0.3wins0.00per pick16cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b2a…c506backed Yes2c610$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.061020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9869…9c73backed Yes2c610$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes20c602.38$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120240%0 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xafbb…9213backed Yes17c588.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+118.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes2c588.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.691136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf387…5414backed Yes2c585.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dfd…abbfbacked Yes4c585.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes6c570.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3833027.9%92 W · 238 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes13c567.47$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3850828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No78c548.69$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5331565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9454…7f72backed Yes48c545.48$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.491127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes3c530$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5329610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd744…ee84backed Yes2c527.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe698…096ebacked Yes20c508.87$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x151f…0386backed No80c508.87$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ce…0095backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes20c494.06$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9619527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes16c485.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3510024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae3c…ee83backed Yes4c483.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c481.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.211,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c463$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes18c428.84$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8252619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7455…0432backed Yes6c400.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.15236.5%19 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No78c396.64$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.59366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0b…5a14backed Yes3c391.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes6c378.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.863986.8%27 W · 371 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…3887backed Yes7c374$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.