Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90ba2964bef3bd5384886a382d03ab2116b479e14c3e09cb17c9d612da3da9e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,688 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 2,049$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 1,540$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…eef8backed Yes | 2c | 1,405$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,227$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 7c | 975.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 2c | 815.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 5c | 814.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 13c | 782$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 13c | 782$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 7c | 572.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 2c | 567.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 530.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 8c | 482.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 23c | 478.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 463$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 11c | 459.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 12c | 429.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 123 | 8.9%11 W · 112 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 396.37$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 23c | 332.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 315.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 292.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes | 19c | 269$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…0432backed Yes | 17c | 240.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 8c | 208.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 63 | 81%51 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…6a28backed Yes | 16c | 183.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 6c | 175.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 10c | 174.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 154.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 20c | 121.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 117.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e9…cfb0backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…5398backed Yes | 21c | 71.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 79c | 23.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 79c | 23.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 79c | 23.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.