TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa65c…32fb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
379
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Weather, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 56 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1238.9%11 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 123 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.42
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.27
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.44
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.22
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.75
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.25
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$270
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.77
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.87
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$412.19
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$453.45
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.7
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.8
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.9
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.07
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+1,200.7%+$939.17
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.79
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.79
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.18
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.29
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.11
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.2
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$239
Showing 25 of 123 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT8838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 88 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.15
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.99
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$486.75
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.29
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$367.9
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.77
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$3,992Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,991.61
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+205.3%+$268.98
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$591Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$591.35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$43.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+141%+$234
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,015Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$1,324.04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,810Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+208%+$3,764.78
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$503.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$970Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+436%+$4,229.8
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,985Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+283.5%+$5,627.65
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$46.52
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$988Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$988
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$344
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$429.58
Showing 25 of 88 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT4634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.02
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$462Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$462
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+299.1%+$894.84
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$20.22
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.2
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$856Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$344.4
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$593Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$306.69
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$7,517Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$1,998.4
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.56
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,367Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+73.4%+$2,473
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,030Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+26.2%+$270
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$479.61
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$11.09
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,947Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$1,946.64
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+85.8%+$48.49
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$46.25
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$119.66
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+25.4%+$23.45
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$148.87
Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+385.6%+$480.32
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$114.9
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$94.66
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,029.79
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+203%+$301.49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$663Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$663
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$218
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,649Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,649.48
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$620.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,265.44
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$147
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$34.71
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$364.7
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.8
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$65
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,014Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,013.74
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$4,787Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$1,879.1
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$130
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.97
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$309
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$481Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+53.2%+$255.42
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$216.2
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,516Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+31%+$469.45
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.6
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$573Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$227.3
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$488Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$318.49
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$5,793Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,792.71
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$5,434Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+76.5%+$4,155.79
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$105.5
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$371.1
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$215.76
Grok 4.20 released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$32
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$121.59
Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$21.2
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$265
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$571Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+58.5%+$334.16
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+63.9%+$39
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$403.2
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$3,083Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,082.94
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.4
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.2
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$156
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$132.05
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,584Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,583.76
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$208
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.17
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$580
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.99
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+239.4%+$105.79
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$834Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$834
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.8
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.6
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick25cpaid+59.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$516Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+55%+$284
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$996Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+369.1%+$3,674.36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$3,281Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+186.5%+$6,118.42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+423.5%+$1,297.72
Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$283
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$142
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$79.25
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$178.01
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-84.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$738Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$262
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.99
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,419Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,419.22
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30.11
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$47.5
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$47
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$776Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$776
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$44.66
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$23
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestoneslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$18
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.99
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.5
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$439.27
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.69
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.71
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,820Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,820.46
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+196.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-64.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick17cpaid+306%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$94
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$230
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$114
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.