Weather · resolved market
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa717df3decd9f41d8f330ca543f38dcf74895110275b318f7934879dd260fd57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b4…38c7backed No | 59c | 3,303$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 44c | 3,147$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.93 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 66c | 2,002$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.15 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…dfe5backed No | 11c | 1,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 31c | 1,811$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.75 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 1,712$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…4660backed No | 56c | 1,477$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,300$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +306%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…8bf7backed Yes | 48c | 1,300$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc961…db04backed Yes | 43c | 1,147$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 46c | 736.61$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 2c | 680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 24c | 637.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…aaaebacked No | 58c | 612.16$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 42c | 559.45$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 59c | 510.24$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 41c | 465.79$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…3632backed No | 28c | 425$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 51c | 391.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 54c | 390.22$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.31 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 58c | 377.02$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 34c | 270.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 41c | 258.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.43 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 245$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…cf78backed No | 55c | 244.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…9ed2backed Yes | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed No | 52c | 205.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 200.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 42c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…e66abacked No | 58c | 194.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 192$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4551…3721backed No | 58c | 175.38$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 42c | 173.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbd…e1f7backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…5eb7backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…9b8cbacked No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a96…4e13backed Yes | 49c | 141.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 62c | 140.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…8292backed No | 60c | 128.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…186ebacked Yes | 42c | 117.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 45c | 108.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 53c | 100.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 42c | 59.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked No | 53c | 56.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…2313backed Yes | 41c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…fb11backed Yes | 45c | 44.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e4…c017backed No | 58c | 42.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd813…bf98backed Yes | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 57c | 40.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…5382backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…0df3backed Yes | 43c | 39.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 41c | 39.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed No | 52c | 37.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…7361backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…131ebacked No | 44c | 33.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…c878backed Yes | 58c | 29.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 42c | 28.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e7…3731backed Yes | 44c | 28.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d75…4e46backed No | 57c | 27.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 54c | 26.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…57f4backed Yes | 57c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f73…cd04backed Yes | 42c | 25.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…1068backed Yes | 44c | 25.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…f997backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 52c | 24.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…8dcabacked No | 56c | 24.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes | 49c | 21.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 58c | 20.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…2d3bbacked No | 53c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb916…906fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…45cbbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.