Wallet 0x9422…f273
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x9422f0e5a2c4358bdd2a901aa2a31f58e04ef273
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 2,266
- What they are worth now
- $6,737
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 47
bought for $4,762
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 2,266, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0xe531…5795backed outcome 0 | 3,671shares | 7c | 3c | $106 |
| Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next?backed Yes | 102.9shares | 58c | 62c | $64 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on August 25?backed Yes | 129.98shares | 1c | 47c | $60 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on August 27?backed Yes | 130shares | 1c | 45c | $59 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on August 27?backed Yes | 130shares | 1c | 44c | $57 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 6°C or below on August 27?backed Yes | 130shares | 1c | 43c | $56 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on August 27?backed Yes | 130shares | 1c | 39c | $51 |
| Market 0xf281…e71bbacked outcome 0 | 130shares | 1c | 36c | $47 |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?backed No | 53.73shares | 83c | 86c | $46 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on August 26?backed Yes | 130shares | 1c | 34c | $44 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 47. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x46fb…e642backed outcome 0 | 433.33shares | 0c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · resolved | 433.33shares | 0c | $0 | Never scored |
| Market 0xd253…a031backed outcome 0 | 433.33shares | 0c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0xa340…a22abacked outcome 0 | 428.33shares | 0c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will "Spa Weekend" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · resolved | 325shares | 0c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 2 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 3 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 2,034
- Categories scored
- 49
- Categories below 50
- 30
Best Category: Premier League, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).
Best Category Premier League at 63 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 39.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 2,034 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS2last resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Weatherlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| NBAlast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Movieslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| AIlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Earningslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| Valorantlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| WNBAlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| Dota2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| MLBlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| Musiclast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| Token Launcheslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Cricketlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| Chess Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Space Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.