Movies · resolved market
Will "The Odyssey" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e90db1a1b01a11a2f77273784f0a2ea90fddeac634a67a770df9e08d1a2451c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 53c | 317.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 225$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 185$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 30c | 122$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 119.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dc…cdb4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 36.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Odyssey" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?this page
- Will "The Odyssey" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 21m?Yes won
- Will "The Odyssey" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.