Movies · resolved market
Will "The Odyssey" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2336c23e694b61dae2e0d7de2de8eee63ab6b64b05432705816c73e14357b99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 68c | 730.79$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.7 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 570$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 50c | 389.94$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.17 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 28c | 288.19$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.71 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 80c | 241.2$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…6e4dbacked No | 78c | 240$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 220$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 10c | 159.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 119.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 66c | 111.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 101.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 87.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 37c | 67.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 67c | 44.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f93…4171backed No | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 37.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Odyssey" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 21m?this page
- Will "The Odyssey" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.