TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4708…9580

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
427
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Commodities, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT10432.7%34 W · 70 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 104 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+160.5%+$69.41
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.83
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.59
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+214.9%+$56.64
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$55.12
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.09
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.14
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$17.85
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+118.3%+$46.97
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.61
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.47
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.33
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$31.55
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.84
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.03
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+203%+$74.89
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.05
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$35.83
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.91
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.62
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.85
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.5
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.35
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$69.99
Showing 25 of 104 picks, newest first.
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT4226.2%11 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-64.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wayne Rooney attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
Will Drake attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.32
Will Karim Benzema attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$24.37
Will Luka Modric attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.99
Will m0NESY attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.06
Will Paulo Dybala attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.94
Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.59
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$48.67
Will Pam Bondi attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.96
Will the announcers say "Heavyweight" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$20
Will the announcers say "GOAT" or "Greatest Of All Time" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.63
Will the announcers say "Comeback" or "Come Back" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.24
Will the announcers say "Vertical" or "Verticality" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.47
Will the announcers say "Giants" or "Jets" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+37%+$22.48
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" 5+ times during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Will Drake attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$25.71
Will the announcers say "Lenovo" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.64
Will the announcers say "Legacy" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.69
Will the announcers say "Maradona" or "Pelé" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$29.06
Will the announcers say "iShowSpeed" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.27
Will the announcers say "Zlatan" or "Ibrahimovic" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$35.89
Will a Goal be Scored During 1-15 Minute?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.9
Will Timothée Chalamet attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.79
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$25.71
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT4134.1%14 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.31
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$22.72
Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$13.53
Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.32
Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.06
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.43
Will Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.28
Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.53
Will Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.23
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.37
Will Francesca Hong win Milwaukee County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.16
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$12.22
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.32
Will 50 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.57
Will 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.18
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.62
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.11
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$21.29
Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.19
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$75.92
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.48
Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.59
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$30.86
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$27.18
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT2913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.6
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.02
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.47
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.68
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$80.7
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.35
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.66
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+34%+$70.1
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.89
Will "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.5
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.58
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.28
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.61
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.33
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.94
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.79
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.94
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.87
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.61
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$117.32
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.72
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.41
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.92
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Mutiny" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.97
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$42.76
Will "The Odyssey" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 21m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$14.71
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.37
Will "The End of Oak Street" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.79
Will "The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.02
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.32
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$27.18
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.05
Will anyone say "Bastard" during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$26.52
Will anyone say "Mindset" during Big Brother E12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$27.79
Will anyone say "Evict" during Big Brother E12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.13
Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.56
Will "72 Hours" be the top global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$25.43
Will Tom Hiddleston appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$32.55
Will a trailer for Avengers: Doomsday premiere at SDCC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$21.34
Will Marvel Studios announce a new project at SDCC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$28.72
Will Robert Downey Jr. appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$21.06
Will Pedro Pascal appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.2
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Day Box Office be at least 48m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+37%+$25.18
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 115m and 120m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+39%+$52.75
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+36.9%+$50.67
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.29
Will anyone say "Queen" 20+ times during House of the Dragon E5 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.16
Will anyone say "Defend" during House of the Dragon E5 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT2528%7 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-31.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$75.88
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$38.84
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$35.58
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$21.32
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$47.45
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.15
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+400%+$62.5
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Will Alan Campbell be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.76
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.55
Will Dan Jarvis be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.11
Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.35
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.83
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.17
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.49
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.51
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.12
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.94
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.83
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.42
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.57
All 25 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hideki Matsuyama finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+300%+$113.64
Will Max McGreevy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.53
Will Max Homa finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.29
Will Max Homa finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.44
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.06
Will Marco Penge finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.62
Will Bryson DeChambeau finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.36
Will Russell Henley finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$126.82
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+400%+$121.2
Will Alejandro Del Rey finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$31.91
Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$11.39
Will Thomas Detry finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.01
Will Laurie Canter finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.1
Will Lanto Griffin finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+25%+$18.37
Will Stephan Jaeger finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$79.2
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.3
Will Cameron Smith finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.72
Will Andrew Novak finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.47
Will Jordan Spieth finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will Joaquin Niemann finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.69
Will Daniel Berger finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.94
Will Viktor Hovland finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$36.31
Will Michael Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$44.84
All 24 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Groupon (GRPN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.82
Will Microchip Technology (MCHP) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$25.16
Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$26.11
Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$19.28
Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$19.28
Will SanDisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.98
Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.94
Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$30
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$16.08
Will Merck & Co (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$19.48
Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+25%+$18.18
Will Cabot (CBT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.81
Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$31.93
Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.88
Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.25
Will Amazon say "Prime Day" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
Will BGC Partners (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$22.04
Will Tradeweb Markets (TW) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.25
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25%+$18.18
Will General Motors say "Portfolio" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will General Motors say "America" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will General Motors say "Software" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.31
All 24 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.69
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$78.99
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+300%+$71.82
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$46.36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.43
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.98
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.92
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.9
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.66
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.03
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+1,195.4%+$245.61
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.14
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.44
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.62
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.4
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-75.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$40.59
Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.39
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.66
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.04
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.45
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.82
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.99
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.76
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.43
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.63
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.18
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+78.3%+$25.1
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.58
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.3
All 16 picks, newest first.
Lollast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JavierLoL Win the 2026 Soloq Challenge (High Elo)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.28
Will Karchez Win the 2026 Soloq Challenge (Low Elo)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.86
Will EkkoTheNeeko Win the 2026 Soloq Challenge (High Elo)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.44
Will Sol1xd Win the 2026 Soloq Challenge (High Elo)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.24
Will DN SOOPers Win KeSPA Cup 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+149.5%+$44.87
Will Nongshim RedForce Win KeSPA Cup 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$36.51
Will T1 Qualify to EWC 2026 Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.51
Will Sentinels Qualify to EWC 2026 Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$58.51
Will Movistar KOI Qualify to EWC 2026 Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.13
All 9 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LGD Gaming win the 2026 Games of the Future tournamentbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+25%+$18.75
Will LGD Gaming Win the Shortest Game at EWC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+479.3%+$154.38
Inner Circle to win 2-0?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Inner Circle · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.82
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winnerbacked 4ikibamboni · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.36
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winnerbacked Inner Circle · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.63
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.75
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerbacked MODUS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.98
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-78.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+72.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-73%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chesslast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$44.26
Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.95
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.