Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c9a38793f3a8a503a5c604aa62ec9c2fb3ca81058a7e0108586526f0c2858d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f57…b03fbacked Yes | 36c | 667.42$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…1c7ebacked Yes | 19c | 471.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 32c | 304.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed Yes | 31c | 294.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 186.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1392backed Yes | 28c | 179.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 63c | 168.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 161.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 69c | 147$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 140.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 70c | 120.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 71c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 36c | 97.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…d88cbacked Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 22c | 85.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 54c | 59.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 52.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 34c | 50.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 47.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 46.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67c7…c392backed Yes | 22c | 44.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 41.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 30.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 22.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 80c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 76c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?this page
- Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US lose jobs in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.