Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x160c9d34b0870428163235402d1f55531de7b86c1d6ab8b1c8836c10c3f9a7f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 14c | 951.86$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 429.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 303 | 13.9%42 W · 261 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1392backed Yes | 7c | 284.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 18c | 154.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 18c | 66.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…b141backed Yes | 48c | 36.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?this page
- Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US lose jobs in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.