Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1599f50bef7836f26781cfb9e49ac4553b4ee6efb746cccf8d9493809fefcc6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 31c | 634.6$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab97…2efbbacked Yes | 20c | 492.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +597.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 20c | 453.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…5606backed Yes | 25c | 226$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +286%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153e…98afbacked No | 75c | 201.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 24c | 176.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Yes | 25c | 175$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked Yes | 25c | 168.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 135.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 120.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 71c | 109.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcc…00fdbacked Yes | 29c | 104.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 72c | 90.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 86.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 75c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 72.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 54.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 70c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 29.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 76c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 76c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…b830backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?this page
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US lose jobs in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.