TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x71dd…d61c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
183
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Commodities, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 52 out of 100; worst Macro Indicators at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST5733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.02
US congress stock trading ban in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+32.4%+$64.82
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$2,030
Will Trump endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+58.7%+$14.68
Will fewer than 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$269
Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Mike Bloomberg endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$198
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+52.4%+$105.31
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.94
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$345
Will Trump say Fake news during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+157.5%+$53.53
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+504.2%+$100.85
Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+88%+$486.27
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump visit China before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.25
Will Elon Musk endorse the Big Beautiful Bill?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT3240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,598Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$501.9
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+146%+$219.05
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.08
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$45.99
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14.3
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+46%+$18.01
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,158Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,158.29
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+39.7%+$103.29
Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$36
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+150%+$150
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+53.4%+$10.68
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$33.2
Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+251.3%+$175.9
Fed rate cut by October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$53.85
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.86
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+429.6%+$107.41
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.4
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.52
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$29
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or less in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.9
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$85
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.01
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.17
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.6
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.65
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.15
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
All 22 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+80.6%+$201.38
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+506.4%+$1,265.92
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Will the Liberals win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Liberals win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$132.56
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$750
Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+475%+$99.88
Will Carney say "Hockey" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Carney say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Carney say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Carney say "Doug" or "Ford" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Carney say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$320
Will Carney say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT+59.5%+$119.05
Will Liberals lead by 2-3% on April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Trudeau resign Today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+41.5%+$414.81
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+182.3%+$45.58
Will Obama endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$142
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$110.1
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+75.7%+$15.15
Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+29.9%+$238.96
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,900
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$261.6
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,800
Senate control after 2024 election?backed Democrats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15.17
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Canada recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+100%+$25
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+95.2%+$195.11
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+164.4%+$821.75
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$150
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+39.4%+$590.95
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.6
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.7
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$167.31
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,146.4
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$596.3
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
All 3 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Xi talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$775Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+95%+$736.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say "Robotics" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$8.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.