Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd19d2b7938338b2f7044d498a5508b6ea775c9c32d6154add6bfedd7ea7efd0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd87b…db63backed Yes | 7c | 21,849$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…561dbacked Yes | 9c | 19,641$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.57 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 8c | 12,430$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 9c | 11,127$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.52 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…3727backed Yes | 11c | 4,617$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 8c | 3,923$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 8c | 3,868$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.28 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…b0c0backed Yes | 5c | 3,769$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 7c | 3,209$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 9c | 2,865$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.76 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 2,751$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.06 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 8c | 2,590$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.7 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,485$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…4d07backed Yes | 10c | 2,324$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c4…a6bebacked Yes | 11c | 2,280$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…9be6backed Yes | 10c | 2,027$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,943$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 8c | 1,914$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 6c | 1,649$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,307$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 10c | 1,002$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669c…8e90backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…3700backed Yes | 19c | 994.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84e…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 732.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed Yes | 6c | 599.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +889.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…7bd1backed Yes | 10c | 547.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 5c | 542.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…dd64backed Yes | 9c | 540.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 5c | 513.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…0066backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 14cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…ab78backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 7c | 499.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…bf19backed Yes | 9c | 436.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…8a49backed Yes | 7c | 423.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 6c | 420$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 11c | 370$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 326$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…e9c1backed Yes | 11c | 320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…afe5backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 7c | 281.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 9c | 278.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 10c | 265$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 74c | 175.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…db49backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…e377backed Yes | 9c | 107.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 12c | 102$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.