Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4ccb0393e7b8f07c822b143f572819035caa0b9404191a2bef15d436a9f2adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 6c | 16,935$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.21 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 3c | 14,210$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 5c | 11,654$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.8 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 9,989$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.11 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 6,670$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 5,762$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.54 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 3c | 4,858$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 7c | 4,651$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.08 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…045abacked Yes | 2c | 2,512$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 8c | 2,024$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,837$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669c…8e90backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba42…5d88backed Yes | 3c | 889$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 826.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 4c | 815.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 1c | 796.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 770.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…248bbacked Yes | 3c | 741.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 12c | 710$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 4c | 599.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…f0b1backed Yes | 7c | 585.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 574.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 543.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb7…5b4bbacked Yes | 4c | 520$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…aae8backed Yes | 4c | 493$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 4c | 485.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…b362backed Yes | 3c | 475.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…d796backed Yes | 7c | 291.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…6db3backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…bfb8backed Yes | 10c | 222.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.