Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78a786481cd44a7d153f762d071eba841d199097f2ec0771ba5032d3935448f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 15c | 12,482$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.65 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 15c | 6,126$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 15c | 2,900$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.33 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 17c | 2,648$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 14c | 2,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,759$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.12 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 15c | 1,564$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.23 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 17c | 1,358$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…7fe9backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 12c | 835.69$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 8c | 815.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 80c | 712.65$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 15c | 699.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 16c | 678.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 671.28$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 16c | 656.24$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 15c | 631$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 19c | 599.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 15c | 585.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7bfabacked Yes | 14c | 580$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…f0b1backed Yes | 17c | 578.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 13c | 575.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…d796backed Yes | 9c | 550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f35…a8dbbacked Yes | 19c | 533.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 13c | 530.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…e6cdbacked Yes | 19c | 513.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6057…0ee0backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…d094backed Yes | 21c | 481.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…aadebacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa165…0822backed Yes | 33c | 367.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…99e8backed Yes | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e1…8290backed No | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…045abacked Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…5fbfbacked Yes | 16c | 313.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…b0c0backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…003ebacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 21c | 271$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…d314backed Yes | 20c | 253.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 236.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 12c | 215.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bb97backed Yes | 16c | 212.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 19c | 186.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 17c | 163$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…938bbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 132.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 103.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Yes | 14c | 103.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf09…63c3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…95dabacked Yes | 20c | 98.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…164cbacked Yes | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907b…f46cbacked Yes | 19c | 89.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…41edbacked Yes | 16c | 77.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…455fbacked Yes | 20c | 76.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…f217backed Yes | 22c | 66.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a57…f7ddbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…7935backed Yes | 28c | 38.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.