TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,405 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes1c12,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes40c11,308$4,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,547.1722433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes40c10,188$4,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,032.238636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes44c8,811$3,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,887.94027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes42c4,062$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.9612820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3962…7c83backed Yes42c3,484$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.53540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec2…cb66backed Yes63c3,170$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes48c2,547$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.021936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes42c2,438$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.063228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes43c2,303$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.15819%11 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b5…a403backed Yes51c2,278$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.952630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes40c2,190$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.745145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c1,800$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68219931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No38c1,411$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.471668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes11c1,272$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.92156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes42c1,105$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.453920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes36c1,100$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes38c1,056$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.643426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.582540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes38c644.5$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.196827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes41c621$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.194422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+102.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c591.29$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.7115148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes39c564.08$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.192147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf20…f904backed Yes55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes42c464.87$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032b…ac1ebacked Yes57c439.7$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed No53c437.91$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.812454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed No62c431.48$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.961827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes43c400$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1711526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x677f…c336backed Yes46c388.74$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf830…3437backed Yes54c368.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a3…67e3backed Yes34c360$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.912020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda78…e9c1backed Yes38c360$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.81540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e80…3082backed Yes43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No63c271.95$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.69144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes37c267$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8423330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba42…5d88backed Yes42c260.47$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55bc…5b19backed No46c255.35$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.89633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes39c245.93$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.914024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf650…1c51backed Yes38c230$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.41942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes49c229.96$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.681127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde71…e7b6backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d3…4356backed Yes38c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58d6…6667backed Yes61c195.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No60c195$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes35c165$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed Yes63c159.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No55c157.48$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0517528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8ac…312dbacked Yes48c156.47$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No36c147.14$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes68c146.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ea…a193backed No51c139.67$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes37c137.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.53928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes34c129.71$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.14751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x680a…0522backed Yes57c117.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes58c103.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8267…7bb4backed No52c101$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17da…10e5backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.934100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+141.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1a7…a9cdbacked Yes46c98.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes45c91.61$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.391040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a8…d796backed Yes45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Yes46c88.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No64c84$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.544344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Yes55c80$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc320…7637backed Yes56c71.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a40…1386backed Yes44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes59c67.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes36c65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.214325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes35c64.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.56126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf2a…bf19backed No60c60.25$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.251338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2420242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8d5…41edbacked Yes56c57.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes53c50.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f4…f549backed Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9910…f830backed Yes57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02a…4f4bbacked No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff94…c347backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcb7…5b4bbacked Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a57…f7ddbacked Yes45c46.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0fb…95dabacked Yes44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd0…550abacked Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.123435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No57c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.191361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc4…7c35backed No58c32.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+121.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc78f…07eebacked Yes48c31.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e85…40c4backed No61c31.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…3ea8backed Yes65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35b…4e4cbacked Yes65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes44c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff61…bcccbacked No58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0a…4e68backed Yes54c24.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd331…7b24backed Yes56c21.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1b…9a2dbacked No53c21.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x794d…2778backed No58c19.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f94…7fddbacked No57c17.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc18b…ce01backed No57c17.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.