TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x677f…c336

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+27%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.29
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,822Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+180.3%+$6,893.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+100%+$200
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+203%+$164.45
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,675Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,675.03
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,308Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+41.2%+$1,363.25
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+63.4%+$221.89
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$920Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+26.6%+$244.83
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+82.8%+$248.44
All 11 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+928.7%+$1,447.3
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$557Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$556.53
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.41
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$368
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 August 25–31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.59
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 August 25–31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.74
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$145.16
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 August 25–31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.45
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.71
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+245.5%+$49.1
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.72
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$286.87
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.39
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.59
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST80%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Sep 11, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-74.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+109.7%+$219.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+72.4%+$121.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$357.95
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.