TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,626,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,238,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,626,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,559 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba27…44ebbacked No1c673,276$9,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,699.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed No2c279,370$5,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,738.24352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked No1c219,992$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,029.32120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…1824backed No2c214,059$3,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,582.1120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe1…b7e5backed No2c183,115$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc6…dfe9backed No2c149,608$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,992.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No11c149,108$16,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,683.521921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde9…c348backed No2c138,986$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,696.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6775…c73bbacked No0c134,458$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No6c132,626$7,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,913.12825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed No2c128,072$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.86130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d2b…a8ddbacked No2c125,358$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No5c123,000$6,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,604.144320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…c8b0backed No2c116,728$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No2c113,987$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.84303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked No3c109,955$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.414712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes74c107,037$78,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,316.51681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2300…21c8backed No1c100,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac51…da02backed No2c95,997$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked No5c82,745$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6095…b9fbbacked No7c79,262$5,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,637.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48c3…e41abacked No2c72,613$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b52…354ebacked No1c71,684$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed No2c68,420$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.4150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed No18c66,837$11,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,810.02633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-24.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No13c60,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8001833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f5…1339backed No1c57,900$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No2c56,837$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.912416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3e…2aebbacked No2c53,100$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ce…b815backed No1c52,717$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3877…4daabacked No2c51,082$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No15c50,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5001931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8155…cf1dbacked No2c50,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked No11c50,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed No2c48,500$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9401513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8702…44abbacked No2c48,182$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c1…cacebacked No6c44,726$2,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,683.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked No4c43,794$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.5870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4abe…7a64backed No2c43,266$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9313…7775backed No2c40,094$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No3c39,983$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.11185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-91%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dee…fc17backed No2c38,533$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad23…a614backed No1c38,287$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e4…626ebacked No1c38,180$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb5…8803backed No1c38,107$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5800…703abacked No1c37,639$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5247…8ae5backed No1c36,418$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes80c35,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,0001338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc810…1ce6backed No2c32,155$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x935f…88a6backed No2c31,365$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581f…d9d8backed No2c30,104$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Yes80c30,000$23,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,080.73966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefb…54b2backed No2c30,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f02…a51cbacked No16c30,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.97234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-94.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No14c29,486$4,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,063.67248.3%2 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-89.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x521c…58a2backed No2c29,412$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5989…12a3backed No2c29,152$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d7…73e7backed No0c27,283$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad0…033ebacked No2c26,706$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa31…2dd4backed No2c26,689$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba09…cca9backed No11c26,667$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ed…6609backed No2c25,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51f0…9d31backed No2c24,618$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No14c24,190$3,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,471.623423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a04…d57dbacked No8c24,048$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c9…30c0backed No4c23,810$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e45…ae93backed No2c23,481$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…8764backed No1c23,098$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8d…ea47backed No2c23,033$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No2c23,000$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.2342.9%1 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-96.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e0…e2c1backed No2c21,739$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebd…2882backed Yes79c21,458$16,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,472.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x487b…eccbbacked Yes69c20,818$14,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,453.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d6c…b6e1backed No10c19,964$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfa…4386backed No1c19,838$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked No2c19,246$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-85.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c90…fb7fbacked No2c19,239$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0da…fba0backed No2c18,789$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb60…fc1abacked No2c18,740$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad76…daa4backed No3c18,608$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x636b…6915backed No6c18,478$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4baa…937fbacked No1c17,795$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked No3c17,748$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.89150%0 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x335d…5692backed No2c17,425$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd49…a759backed No3c17,396$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c35…b7a1backed No2c16,874$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked No1c16,219$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e64…5c0dbacked No2c15,706$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2a…0e86backed No2c15,519$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc4…7bb2backed No4c15,261$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ed…3c03backed No20c15,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x277e…9d43backed No2c14,800$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e94…3d35backed No18c14,633$2,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,633.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No6c14,525$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.68922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x609b…6834backed No1c14,150$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8275…038bbacked No4c13,913$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f27…7acabacked No11c13,636$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x527b…eb08backed No1c13,500$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed No9c13,074$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.3990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No12c12,906$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.026717.9%12 W · 55 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.